All posts by latenighthoops

latenighthoops@latenighthoops.com @LateNightHoops LateNightHoops.com

Projecting Marquette’s 2018-19 Usage

We recently commented on the difficulty in projecting minutes for Marquette’s stacked 2018-19 roster. Today, we look at projecting usage play-by-player, which is (or at least feels like) a much easier task.

Before getting to our projections, we also looked at how many games each player posted a single-game usage greater than 25% thus far in their career (using KenPom.com data; minimum of 10 minutes playing time in a game).

Only three 2018-19 eligible Warriors have had more than five >25% usage games in their career, led by Markus Howard’s 34 over two seasons.

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Marquette’s Experience Ranking in 2018-19

Marquette’s Experience Ranking in 2018-19

Last season it was said that Marquette was a young team and that was true. The Warriors’ KenPom experience ranking sat at #313 (of 351 teams) with an experience score of 1.21. The NCAA D-I average was 1.70, with the median slightly higher at 1.74.

Going through the process of projecting MU’s experience score in 2018-19 highlights the mostly-wonderful dilemma the upcoming season brings: how do you distribute the minutes?
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Sam Hauser Sits at #2 Nationally in 3FG%

Sam Hauser Sits at #2 Nationally in 3FG%

Markus Howard of Marquette was awarded an NCAA statistical plaque for having the nation’s best three-point field goal shooting percentage in 2016-17.  His teammate Sam Hauser is currently second in the nation for the 2017-18 award, but two non-NCAA teams may keep him away from the hardware.

Some rules related to the honor are fairly simple: you must make at least 2.5 three-point field goals per game and play in at least 75% of your team’s games. That’s why you don’t see Michigan State’s Cassius Winston on the leaderboard despite his lofty 56.5% shooting from deep this season. He’s only 70/124 in his team’s 31 games (31 x 2.5 = 77.5).

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Greg Elliott Posting Impressive Defensive Stats Early for Marquette

Greg Elliott Posting Impressive Defensive Stats Early for Marquette

With the departure of Haanif Cheatham earlier this week, Marquette freshman Greg Elliott may need to play a bigger role than he otherwise would have. This may be a good thing.

Elliott (41.4% minutes played) has a block rate of 8.4% and a steal rate of 4.3%, both ranked in the top 70 players nationally per KenPom.com.

Continue reading Greg Elliott Posting Impressive Defensive Stats Early for Marquette

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Markus Howard Off to a Strong, But Different, Start

Markus Howard Off to a Strong, But Different, Start

As a freshman, Markus Howard shot a nation-leading 54.7% from 3-point range. As we projected his sophomore campaign, expecting him to best or even match that percentage was not reasonable. We expect his 3-point shooting percentage to decline in 2017-18.

How, then, could he improve this year? The answer includes turnover rate and 2-point field goal percentage. So far, so good. We should note that in Marquette’s first four games they’ve played our preseason pick for second place in the Big Ten (Purdue), the nation’s #6 ranked team (Wichita State) and a pesky VCU squad. It’s not as if he’s faced a long string of weak opponents.

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Minnesota’s RPI Faces SOS Challenge in 2017-18

A year ago, Minnesota’s RPI (20 on Selection Sunday) benefitted from their strong strength of schedule (as defined by the RPI – not as any rational human would define it). Their opponents’ strength of schedule (“SOS”), worth 50% of the RPI, was .5953 as the NCAA tourney field was being finalized.

The Gophers enjoyed a well-constructed schedule under which they faced a number of relative easy games against beatable competition who happened to finish the year with good win-loss records.

For example, no one was concerned about hosting Mount St. Mary’s. Minnesota won 80-56. But, for purposes of Minnesota’s Selection Sunday SOS, Mount St. Mary’s had a record of 19-14 (.5758).

Last year’s lid lifter vs. Lafayette wasn’t scary, but the Ragin’ Cajuns were 19-11 (.6333) on Selection Sunday for purposes of Minnesota’s SOS calc.

Things will not be the same in 2017-18. The Gophers SOS will be considerably weaker.

Late Night Hoops projects an SOS on Selection Sunday of just .5520, or .0433 less than 2016-17. If we adjust last year’s RPI of .6109 for only the impact of the lower SOS (e.g., 50% of .0433), the Gophers would have had a Selection Sunday RPI of 39 instead of 20.

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Marquette Again Improves Schedule in 2017-18

Marquette Again Improves Schedule in 2017-18

As they did a year ago, Marquette has improved their scheduling and projected RPI “strength of schedule”.

Last year MU’s SOS, worth 50% of RPI, was .5621. Late Night Hoops projects an SOS of .5882 in 2017-18. That equals an RPI improvement in the SOS component of .0131.

Had MU’s RPI been .0131 better in 2016-17, their Selection Sunday RPI ranking of 61 would have moved up to 50.

Marquette’s scheduling still has room for improvement, but it’s encouraging that it has improved yet again in 2017-18.

The Warriors begin their season on Friday vs. Mount St. Mary’s.

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Joey Hauser: Advanced Stats at adidas Uprising

First, a tip of the hat to Open Look Analytics (Openlookanalytics.com and @OLAnalytics on Twitter) for their great data which was used for this article. College programs should be subscribing to their services.

From 2014 through 2017, how many adidas Uprising players have posted an Offensive Rating (“ORtg”) of more than 125, a usage rate of more than 25% and played at least 200 minutes? The answer is two.

In 2016, 2018 Romeo Langford had an ORtg of 126.4 and a usage of 27.0%. Langford is currently ranked as the sixth best prospect in the 2018 class by Rivals, 24/7, ESPN and Scout.

The other player is 2018 Marquette commit Joey Hauser. Joey’s ORtg this year was 127.7 and his usage was 29.1%.

It’s important to understand how a player got to their ORtg and usage. In Hauser’s case, his eFG% of 57.7% isn’t earth shattering, but includes good indicators for the future.

His 3FG% of 46.3% was excellent, but only 32% of his field goal attempts were from deep. Scoring a variety of different ways, his 2FG% was a solid 52.2%.

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