Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections
Before last season began, we shared thoughts on Marquette’s projected four factor differentials for the 2016-17 season, comparing them to 2015-16. The key in reaching the NCAA tournament for the Warriors was going to be effective field goal percentage differential.
We said, “A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are in business even without improvement in rebounding.”
As of Selection Sunday, Marquette’s actual eFG% differential was 5.7% (57.6% on offense, 51.9% on defense) and they were selected to the tourney’s field.
MU simply had to shoot the ball better than their opponents to have a chance at being a tourney team. Our target mark of 5.8% proved to be a reasonable estimate of the differential needed to make the tournament. Continue reading Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections
Improved Scheduling Helped Marquette Reach 2016-17 Tourney
On Selection Sunday, Marquette had an RPI of 61. If the largest component of RPI – opponents’ win-loss performance against all D-I teams except MU – would have been the same as 2015-16, Marquette would have had an RPI that was .0224 lower, slotting them at 82 in the RPI and likely out of the NCAA tournament.
The Warriors’ strength of schedule ranked them 219 of 351 teams as of Selection Sunday this season. This was a sizable improvement from 326 in 2015-16.
Continue reading Improved Scheduling Helped Marquette Reach 2016-17 Tourney
Just prior to the start of the 2016-17 basketball season last November, we stated that Richard Pitino was not on the hot seat. There were three reasons for this: the team’s outlook, his large buyout, and the program’s APR.
Our claims that most people were underestimating the team and that they projected to be set for a strong 2017-18 were proven to be true. From here, things could continue to go well (e.g., a strong 2017-18 season, great success on the recruiting trail), or they could become more challenging.
However, due to the other two issues, the seat still probably won’t get hot soon even if team performance and recruiting go south.
Continue reading Minnesota Men’s Basketball APR Remains a Concern
Howard Pulley Advanced Stats through 2017 EYBL Session #2
Advanced stats for individuals and the team’s four factors are included below. They reflect Howard Pulley’s eight games (7-1 record) in EYBL through today, April 30, 2017. Key individual highlights include:
- Tre Jones: 138.5 ORtg; 26.1% usage; 60.1% eFG%; 14.0% DR%; 44.2% assist rate; 12.7% TO rate
- Gabe Kalscheur: 128.9 ORtg, 22.2% usage; 28.2% %Shots; 63.5% eFG%; 44.8% 3FG%
- Daniel Oturu: 118.0 ORtg; 19.8% usage; 16.8% OR%; 24.2% DR%; 11.9% TO rate; 6.9 blk%
- Jarvis Thomas: 103.8 ORtg; 19.0% usage; 65.2% eFG%; 10.5% OR%; 17.5% DR%;
Continue reading Howard Pulley Advanced Stats through 2017 EYBL Session #2
Source? Be Careful With Your Nike EYBL Stats
The D1Circuit.com website looks nice and has some good information within it. However, when it comes to statistics, they’ve quickly proven to have major issues again in 2017.
In the past, we’ve approached D1Circuit with comments, but have been unable to find a willing ear.
Simply put, we’d recommend you double-check them as a primary source for statistics unless they put in some basic logic and controls for identifying bad data.
The latest example relates to Howard Pulley and their opening night game. Several in the Twin Cities media have stated 3-point shooting statistics for 2018 Gabe Kalscheur that don’t jibe with the NikeEYB.com site or Gamechanger.com.
Let’s take a look:
Continue reading Source? Be Careful With Your Nike EYBL Stats
Markus Howard Compared to Rivals’ Top Freshmen List
Rivals.com released their ‘top ten freshman’ to date and added another seven who they felt were in the conversation. Neither of Marquette’s freshmen were included, but both have enjoyed strong year one campaigns.
Sam Hauser, who sports a top-40 offensive rating, doesn’t make the cut because of his low usage. Markus Howard has a great argument for inclusion, but his minutes played are a bit low compared to the Rivals’ group.
Here’s the list, along with each player’s respective offensive rating and usage (per KenPom.com):
Continue reading Markus Howard Compared to Rivals’ Top Freshmen List
Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
There is no denying that Marquette’s defense has been poor this season. One of the uglier stats has been 3FG% allowed, which is now at 38.4%, ranking the team at #315 is the nation.
In Big East play, things have only gotten worse as MU’s opponents are converting 40.1% of their 3-point attempts.
Continue reading Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?