Just prior to the start of the 2016-17 basketball season last November, we stated that Richard Pitino was not on the hot seat. There were three reasons for this: the team’s outlook, his large buyout, and the program’s APR.
Our claims that most people were underestimating the team and that they projected to be set for a strong 2017-18 were proven to be true. From here, things could continue to go well (e.g., a strong 2017-18 season, great success on the recruiting trail), or they could become more challenging.
However, due to the other two issues, the seat still probably won’t get hot soon even if team performance and recruiting go south.
Continue reading Minnesota Men’s Basketball APR Remains a Concern
Howard Pulley Advanced Stats through 2017 EYBL Session #2
Advanced stats for individuals and the team’s four factors are included below. They reflect Howard Pulley’s eight games (7-1 record) in EYBL through today, April 30, 2017. Key individual highlights include:
- Tre Jones: 138.5 ORtg; 26.1% usage; 60.1% eFG%; 14.0% DR%; 44.2% assist rate; 12.7% TO rate
- Gabe Kalscheur: 128.9 ORtg, 22.2% usage; 28.2% %Shots; 63.5% eFG%; 44.8% 3FG%
- Daniel Oturu: 118.0 ORtg; 19.8% usage; 16.8% OR%; 24.2% DR%; 11.9% TO rate; 6.9 blk%
- Jarvis Thomas: 103.8 ORtg; 19.0% usage; 65.2% eFG%; 10.5% OR%; 17.5% DR%;
Continue reading Howard Pulley Advanced Stats through 2017 EYBL Session #2
Source? Be Careful With Your Nike EYBL Stats
The D1Circuit.com website looks nice and has some good information within it. However, when it comes to statistics, they’ve quickly proven to have major issues again in 2017.
In the past, we’ve approached D1Circuit with comments, but have been unable to find a willing ear.
Simply put, we’d recommend you double-check them as a primary source for statistics unless they put in some basic logic and controls for identifying bad data.
The latest example relates to Howard Pulley and their opening night game. Several in the Twin Cities media have stated 3-point shooting statistics for 2018 Gabe Kalscheur that don’t jibe with the NikeEYB.com site or Gamechanger.com.
Let’s take a look:
Continue reading Source? Be Careful With Your Nike EYBL Stats
Markus Howard Compared to Rivals’ Top Freshmen List
Rivals.com released their ‘top ten freshman’ to date and added another seven who they felt were in the conversation. Neither of Marquette’s freshmen were included, but both have enjoyed strong year one campaigns.
Sam Hauser, who sports a top-40 offensive rating, doesn’t make the cut because of his low usage. Markus Howard has a great argument for inclusion, but his minutes played are a bit low compared to the Rivals’ group.
Here’s the list, along with each player’s respective offensive rating and usage (per KenPom.com):
Continue reading Markus Howard Compared to Rivals’ Top Freshmen List
Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
There is no denying that Marquette’s defense has been poor this season. One of the uglier stats has been 3FG% allowed, which is now at 38.4%, ranking the team at #315 is the nation.
In Big East play, things have only gotten worse as MU’s opponents are converting 40.1% of their 3-point attempts.
Continue reading Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
eFG% better than opponent: 14-0
eFG% worse than opponent: 0-7
TO% better (lower) than opponent: 11-5
TO% worse (higher) than opponent: 3-2
OR% better than opponent: 7-3
OR% worse than opponent:7-4
FTR better than opponent: 7-0
FTR worse than opponent: 7-7
Continue reading Marquette Four Factors: Win-Loss Record
Marquette’s Dramatic 3FG% & 3FGA/FGA Improvement
Prior to the season tipping off we explained that in order for Marquette to be good, they needed to improve their eFG% differential and that they had the potential to improve their turnover rate differential. So far, so good.
We said, “A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are in business even without improvement in rebounding.”
As of today, Marquette has 6.7% eFG% advantage over their opponents (57.9% to 51.2%).
Their offensive eFG% is fifth-best in the nation and 5.9% higher than last year’s respectable 52.0%.
Continue reading Marquette’s Dramatic 3FG% & 3FGA/FGA Improvement
Marquette’s Defensive Rebounding Remains Strong Despite Size
Entering the 2016-17 season, many were concerned with Marquette’s defensive rebounding and with good reason. A year ago, MU ranked just #225 in defensive rebounding percentage after allowing opponents to rebound 30.7% of their misses. The Warriors also lost their top defensive rebounder Henry Ellenson (24.1% DR%) to the NBA.
Marquette allowed nonconference opponents an OR% of greater than 30.0% eight times in 13 games last season. In 12 nonconference games this year, Marquette has done so only once (IUPUI – 33.3%). MU’s is allowing an opponent OR% of 25.5% – good for #43 in the nation. The two top OR% teams MU has faced were uw-madison (avg 38.9%; against MU had just 29.6%) and Georgia (33.2% avg; 22.9%).
Continue reading Marquette’s Defensive Rebounding Remains Strong Despite Size