Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
There is no denying that Marquette’s defense has been poor this season. One of the uglier stats has been 3FG% allowed, which is now at 38.4%, ranking the team at #315 is the nation.
In Big East play, things have only gotten worse as MU’s opponents are converting 40.1% of their 3-point attempts.
Continue reading Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
eFG% better than opponent: 14-0
eFG% worse than opponent: 0-7
TO% better (lower) than opponent: 11-5
TO% worse (higher) than opponent: 3-2
OR% better than opponent: 7-3
OR% worse than opponent:7-4
FTR better than opponent: 7-0
FTR worse than opponent: 7-7
Continue reading Marquette Four Factors: Win-Loss Record
Marquette’s Dramatic 3FG% & 3FGA/FGA Improvement
Prior to the season tipping off we explained that in order for Marquette to be good, they needed to improve their eFG% differential and that they had the potential to improve their turnover rate differential. So far, so good.
We said, “A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are in business even without improvement in rebounding.”
As of today, Marquette has 6.7% eFG% advantage over their opponents (57.9% to 51.2%).
Their offensive eFG% is fifth-best in the nation and 5.9% higher than last year’s respectable 52.0%.
Continue reading Marquette’s Dramatic 3FG% & 3FGA/FGA Improvement
Marquette’s Defensive Rebounding Remains Strong Despite Size
Entering the 2016-17 season, many were concerned with Marquette’s defensive rebounding and with good reason. A year ago, MU ranked just #225 in defensive rebounding percentage after allowing opponents to rebound 30.7% of their misses. The Warriors also lost their top defensive rebounder Henry Ellenson (24.1% DR%) to the NBA.
Marquette allowed nonconference opponents an OR% of greater than 30.0% eight times in 13 games last season. In 12 nonconference games this year, Marquette has done so only once (IUPUI – 33.3%). MU’s is allowing an opponent OR% of 25.5% – good for #43 in the nation. The two top OR% teams MU has faced were uw-madison (avg 38.9%; against MU had just 29.6%) and Georgia (33.2% avg; 22.9%).
Continue reading Marquette’s Defensive Rebounding Remains Strong Despite Size
Four Factors Differentials in 2015-16; Marquette in 2016-17
This article serves two purposes: (1) it’s a reminder of what matters the most – effective field goal percentage; and, (2) it offers commentary on ways Marquette might improve compared to last season.
Let’s take a somewhat different-than-normal look at what matters to a team’s success. Below you’ll find a graph for each of the four factors that illustrate, by team, the differential in each of the factors vs. their overall KenPom team ranking (adjusted efficiency margin) for the 2015-16 season.
Free Throw Rate
Below shows each team’s free throw rate (“FTR”) differential (offensive FTR minus defensive FTR) on the y-axis and their KenPom ranking on the x-axis. You’ll see Marquette indicated by a red diamond (a 12.5 FTR differential and a 97 team ranking).
Continue reading Four Factors Differentials in 2015-16; Marquette in 2016-17
Three Freshmen Guards We Can’t Doubt
5’10”, 165 pounds…5’11”, 175 pounds…5’7″, 150 pounds… once you get past their freshman designation, height and weight, these are three guards who look great on paper.
Our statistical analysis says these guys will be very good college players. Our in person evaluations of the same guys over the years supports the stats. We’ll be monitoring their performance and progression throughout the year as they provide good tests for our evaluation methodology and beliefs.
Jared Harper, Auburn
Harper’s numbers with the Georgia Stars as a rising senior were phenomenal. When you first see him step on the court, there’s nothing physically that would indicate greatness. But, it becomes quickly apparent through his high usage, high efficiency game that he is a potential gem.
The Georgia Stars certainly were a talent team and Harper benefited from his supporting cast, including bruisers on the blocks, but the year prior with a different type of roster, Harper shined playing up for Southern Stampede.
Continue reading Three Freshmen Guards We Can’t Doubt
Marquette’s Free Throw “Defense”
Through February 6, Marquette’s opponents have shot 74.9% from the free throw line. There are only 7 teams in D-I college basketball whose opponents have shot better this season.
On average, D-I basketball teams are 69.6% from the charity stripe this year.
Free throw percentage matters very little in the grand scheme of basketball stats over the course of a season. In terms of importance, the great free throw shooting of Marquette’s opponents shouldn’t even show up on a top 50 list of concern for fans.
Nonetheless, our question was, “Why?” When it comes to free throw rate – far more important than free throw percentage, yet still way down the list of important factors – Marquette has been very good. Only ten teams have a defensive free throw rate better than Marquette’s 26.1%.
Continue reading Marquette’s Free Throw “Defense”
Warriors Allowed to Shine at Marquette
December 23, 2015
File this one under “for what’s it worth,” but we find it interesting. It’s difficult to reach many conclusions based on this data, but at a minimum we feel safe suggesting that if you’re a player at Marquette under Wojo and you’re scoring the ball well on any given night, you will have the opportunity to put up big numbers.
In 2014-15, Marquette had six different players score 20 or more points in a game. Only three teams in all of D-I college basketball had more players reach the 20-point mark (Davidson , Louisiana-Lafayette and North Florida – each had seven).
Through December 21, the 2015-16 season had seen five different Warriors hit the 20-point mark. Only three teams had more players reach 20 points in a game (Colorado, Detroit Mercy and Northern Colorado – each with six). Marquette redshirt sophomore guard Duane Wilson is likely to join the group as he did in 2014-15, but thus far his high is 18 points. Wilson has scored double figures in nine of 11 games this season; he’s scored fewer than nine points in only one contest.
This year’s Marquette team features high-usage Henry Ellenson (27% usage, 30% %Shots), but when other guys are stepping up they have been allowed to keep firing. The other four of MU’s 20+ point scorers this year each have a sub-20% usage.
MU 20+ point scorers in 2014-15:
MU 20+ point scorers in 2015-16 (through game #11):
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Data sources included: http://www.basketball-reference.com