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Statistics

Doing The Splits: Jordan Hulls & Yogi Ferrell

Below we take a quick look at some statistical splits for Indiana’s talented backcourt duo of Jordan Hulls and Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell.

JORDAN HULLS – His 3-point percentage of 52.1% so far this season is tremendous and we could look at his numbers from a million different perspectives and still would come to the same conclusion: he’s an excellent shooter.

Nonetheless, it’s true that (a) his 3FG% dropped significantly in conference play last season and (b) his 3FG% in nonconference games this year is lower than a year ago.

FULL SEASON COMPARISON  
3FGA 3FGM % made
2012-13 38 73 52.1%
2011-12 72 146 49.3%
NONCONFERENCE COMPARISON  
3FGA 3FGM % made
2012-13 36 66 54.5%
2011-12 40 70 57.1%
2011-12 BREAKDOWN    
3FGA 3FGM % made
NonConf 40 70 57.1%
B1G 32 76 42.1%
Total 72 146 49.3%

YOGI FERRELL – His future is bright, but the freshman has struggled at times this season, especially against better teams. How well he continues to progress is an important factor in Indiana’s Big Ten.

To have 17 assists and no turnovers combined against two teams is impressive, but it would be far more amazing if Ferrell had done it against teams better than Sam Houston St. and Jacksonville.

Ferrell has played 400 minutes this year. Below are statistics split by the top 7 opponents (per overall KenPom.com rating) and the bottom 8 opponents.

  Min.       A to TO
Competition Played eFG% Assists Turnovers ratio
Top 7 196 31.9% 26 18 1.4
Bottom 8 204 41.0% 50 13 3.8

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Indiana Hoosiers Cardinal adidas 2012 Football Sideline Shorts

Indiana Hoosiers Cardinal adidas 2012 Football Sideline Shorts


Indiana Hoosiers Cardinal adidas Originals BTC Hooded Sweatshirt

Indiana Hoosiers Cardinal adidas Originals BTC Hooded Sweatshirt

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Gophers’ 2FG% in Nonconference Play Down From 2011-12

Over at GopherHole.com, you can read More Than a Number: Minnesota’s 2-Point Field Goal Shooting.

The article looks at the Gophers’ 2-point field goal shooting and how they can and need to improve their eFG% simply by deferring some lower percentage shots.

Last night Northwestern allowed Michigan to shoot 71% eFG, including 60% 2FG, in a 94-66 Wolverine win. Minnesota hosts the Wildcats Sunday evening at 6pm.

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Crazy Correlations & Minnesota’s O-Reb Dominance

Now available at GopherHole.com, More Than a Number: Minnesota’s Offensive Rebounding Dominance by J.B. Bauer explores some odd correlations between the Gophers’ four factors and their offensive efficiency and discusses the team’s offensive rebounding achievements to date and some reasons to believe they won’t be as dominant going forward.

A couple of other random insights on the topic… some might think that an offensive rebound usually results in an easy two.  A layup, dunk or tip in does often follow, but in analyzing data here a couple of things we found:

1)  Approximately 15% of Minnesota’s offensive rebounds were team rebounds. Therefore, they took the ball out of bounce and therefore there can’t be a quick put back.

2) Of the remaining ~85%, about 35% of those offensive rebounds were followed by another shot at the rim (excluding shot attempts that don’t show up in scoresheet because the shooter was fouled). Of these shots, Minnesota made 74% which is approximately the same FG% as all of their other shot attempts at the (i.e., in transition or in the half court  offense).

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Andre Hollins: A Tale of Two… Games?

Heavy praise is being heaped on Minnesota second-year guard Andre Hollins after he posted big scoring totals against Memphis (41) and South Dakota State (22).

We believe Dre is an excellent young player with a promising future and today we’re simply offering a bit of food for thought. Our analysis and thoughts on Hollins go far deeper than what’s here, but we think the basic information below is plenty interesting.

Selected statistics for Andre Hollins (Sophomore season through December 7, 2012):

  PPG eFG% 2FG% 3FG% FT%
Soph 13.7 52.6% 45.3% 40.9% 79.5%
Fresh 8.7 48.2% 40.5% 37.9% 90.4%

Andre’s points per game average is up 57%, with 20% of the increase explained by more minutes played. The other significant factors are improved shooting from the field and more frequent trips to the free throw line.

Now, let’s separate the two big games from the other eight and see what we’re left with.

Against both Memphis and South Dakota State, Dre was in a zone and any team might have had trouble stopping him. However, you may want to consider that Minnesota didn’t have to see much of the opposing teams’ normal point guards, both of whom are veterans and talented scorers themselves.

Joe Jackson of Memphis played just seven minutes against the Gophers and was on the floor at the same time as Andre for less than five (4:38).

SDSU star Nate Wolters did not play at all due to injury. In his place the Jackrabbits started a true freshman who turned the ball over seven times.

Selected statistics for Andre Hollins – excluding the Memphis & SDSU games:

  PPG eFG% 2FG% 3FG% FT%
Soph 9.3 35.4% 37.5% 21.9% 74.1%
Fresh 8.7 48.2% 40.5% 37.9% 90.4%

Other notes about these eight games:

  • Has not scored above full season average of 14 in any of these games
  • Has posted an Offensive Rating of less than 94 in half of these games
  • In his four roughest shooting outings, Dre’s eFG% was 17.2% (5/29 FG; 0/13 3FG)
  • Of those four, two have occurred in the Gophers’ last four games played

Other

  • Other than Duke, the best defense Minnesota has faced in their last 11 games (10 this season and last year’s NIT final) has been Stanford twice
  • In two games against Stanford, Hollins has shot 2/13 FG (0/4 3FG) with 2 assists and 7 turnovers
Fellas, get her this for the Holidays:

Minnesota Golden Gophers Team Watch - Heart Series

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Minnesota Rebounding: Gophers Only Cleaning One Side of the Glass

In recent years, Minnesota teams have excelled at blocking shots and offensive rebounding. Contrary to what you might expect, however, the defensive rebounding of the Gophers has ranged from mediocre to poor when compared to the rest of the Big Ten and other D1 teams. So far in 2012-13, these trends have continued.

According to StatSheet.com, Minnesota’s offensive rebounding percentage this year is second best in the nation and tops in the Big Ten. On the defensive boards, the Gophers are dead last in the Big Ten and one of the worst in the nation at 329.

Minnesota’s performance on the defensive glass isn’t skewed by a game or two. In fact, the team’s defensive rebounding percentage has been better than the national average in only one game this year (Toledo).

As illustrated in the tables below, during Tubby’s years as head coach the team’s offensive rebounding percentage has been impressive while their defensive rebounding percentage has been relatively poor.

5-Year conference rankings for Minnesota’s offensive & defensive rebounding percentages:

Conference OR% & DR%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5-Year national rankings for Minnesota’s offensive & defensive rebounding percentages:

Overall OR% & DR%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A renewed focus on defensive rebounding could be directed by the coaching staff, but how much might stressing this area hurt the team’s transition into their offense? Minnesota has been particularly successful this year when they strike quickly after a defensive rebound. According to Hoop-Math.com, the Gophers have an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 73% this season when they shoot within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Last year, that figure was 54%.

The figure of 73% eFG% is going to fall as the season goes on as it’s been boosted by an unsustainable 59% 3-point conversion rate. Still, for a team that is often stale in half court sets, anything that detracts from their ability to score in transition could do more harm than good.

We see a few things that could be done, including:

  • Better utilization of the roster, especially Trevor Mbakwe. He’s one of the better rebounders in the college game and should be playing 30+ minutes per game, not fewer than 20.
  • Centers Elliot Eliason (15.8 mpg) and especially Maurice Walker (7.8 mpg) could be given more minutes. At times, we believe it will be appropriate to play one of these two along with Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams.
  • Push the others to improve their tenacity and consistency. Rodney Williams (who has been sensational in most aspects of his game), Andre Ingram (8% DR%) and Joe Coleman all need to improve their contribution on the defensive glass. In the last four games, Minnesota’s opponents have pulled down offensive rebounds at a 39% rate in the first half, but the percentage jumps to 52% in the second half.
What do you think? CONTACT US with your thoughts on this and other articles, as well as any suggestions, comments and critiques.

 

Additional Data for Consideration
Using KenPom.com data through games of November 29, 2012, we looked at who makes up the top 48 defensive rebounders in the Big Ten. Only those who have played in at least 40% of their team’s minutes were included.

If all teams were created equal, we’d expect four players from each of the 12 Big Ten teams to be listed. All but two teams are within one of that expectation (i.e., 10 teams have three, four or five players in the top 48). The outliers are Penn State (six) and Minnesota (one).

For the Gophers, Maurice Walker would be in the Top 10, but has played in less than 20% of the team’s minutes. Elliot Eliason is just short of 40% in minutes and ranked at #30.

Details are listed below:

Rank Name Team DR% Min%
9 Jermaine Marshall Penn St. 19.3 81.2
15 Ross Travis Penn St. 17.9 84.5
29 D.J. Newbill Penn St. 15.3 87.3
36 Brandon Taylor Penn St. 14.4 40.4
38 Sasa Borovnjak Penn St. 13.7 42.2
41 Jon Graham Penn St. 12.6 50.6
17 Eric May Iowa 17.4 48.9
19 Adam Woodbury Iowa 16.8 41.8
32 Zach McCabe Iowa 14.9 44.6
35 Aaron White Iowa 14.5 73.9
40 Melsahn Basabe Iowa 12.9 48.9
1 Adreian Payne Michigan St. 28.2 28.2
7 Derrick Nix Michigan St. 20.3 68.2
21 Denzel Valentine Michigan St. 16 61.1
33 Branden Dawson Michigan St. 14.7 69.3
46 Keith Appling Michigan St. 12.3 89.3
4 Alex Olah Northwestern 23.8 45.3
16 Jared Swopshire Northwestern 17.7 67.4
28 Mike Turner Northwestern 15.4 45.3
43 Reggie Hearn Northwestern 12.5 73.7
45 Drew Crawford Northwestern 12.4 74.7
11 Sam Thompson Ohio St. 19 61
22 Deshaun Thomas Ohio St. 16 80
30 Lenzelle Smith Ohio St. 15.1 76.5
44 Evan Ravenel Ohio St. 12.4 49
48 LaQuinton Ross Ohio St. 11.9 41
10 Tim Hardaway Michigan 19.1 82.5
26 Glenn Robinson Michigan 15.7 80.8
42 Jordan Morgan Michigan 12.6 48.8
47 Nik Stauskas Michigan 12 65.8
6 Andre Almeida Nebraska 20.5 51.7
12 Brandon Ubel Nebraska 18.9 75.4
18 David Rivers Nebraska 17.4 60.8
20 Dylan Talley Nebraska 16.7 88.8
2 Ben Brust Wisconsin 24.6 75.4
8 Ryan Evans Wisconsin 19.4 72.5
24 Jared Berggren Wisconsin 15.8 66.8
39 Mike Bruesewitz Wisconsin 13.7 54.6
23 Joseph Bertrand Illinois 16 52.9
25 D.J. Richardson Illinois 15.8 78.2
27 Brandon Paul Illinois 15.6 77.2
3 Christian Watford Indiana 24.1 62.1
13 Cody Zeller Indiana 18 67.4
37 Will Sheehey Indiana 14.3 52.3
14 A.J. Hammons Purdue 18 43.7
31 Anthony Johnson Purdue 15 66.9
34 Ronnie Johnson Purdue 14.7 65.3
5 Trevor Mbakwe Minnesota 22.5 45.6
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Minnesota Returns One of the Best Shooters Among Big Ten Point Guards

After considering the statistics below, which player do you think had a better season – A or B?

2011-12 Player Comparison

Player A

Player B

Games started

21

21

Offensive Rating

106.1

99.2

2-pt FG%

48.9%

40.5%

3-pt FG%

43.8%

37.9%

REB / 40 min

4.0

3.9

AST / 40 min

4.7

3.4

TO / 40 min

3.7

4.0

STL / 40 min

1.7

1.6

Also, keep in mind the following:

  • Player A made more shots in fewer attempts than Player B when shooting 2-point field goals.
  • Player A also made more shots in fewer attempts than Player B when shooting 3-point field goals.
  • Each player turned the ball over and secured rebounds at approximately the same rates.

Andre Hollins had a fine freshman campaign and his progression over the course of the season could be seen.  He’ll be much improved as a sophomore and looks to be a key piece of Minnesota basketball for the next few years.

However, as a freshman his 2-point field goal percentage was the worst of all Gophers (excluding walk-ons), he had a turnover rate of about 26% and was prone to picking up bad fouls.  These are areas that often improve significantly between a player’s first and second years and Dre projects to be very good.

Although Hollins did average 15.0 ppg in the Gophers’ NIT run, his effective field goal percentage was only 47.4% and the young guard turned the ball over at an average of 5.0 per 40 minutes (25% higher than his average for the full season).  Also, it’s fair to note that in the NIT Minnesota didn’t face any teams in the top 50 for defensive efficiency until Stanford (19th).  To be sure, the confidence is there and things will come together for Andre, but in 2011-12 the Gophers’ best point guard was Julian Welch (Player A).

People will remember some late game missed free throws from Welch, but he was a fine 78% from the line overall.  If anything more than coincidence, misses in crunch time are mostly mental and fans should do what Julian needs to do whenever he’s at the line – forget about the past.  It’s just another free throw.

The junior guard from California proved to be capable of hitting key shots on many occasions.  Just a sample:

  • With 5:38 to play against Michigan in the Big Ten Tourney, his 3-pointer put Minnesota up 49-45.  25 seconds later, he buried another trey to make it 52-45 in favor of the Gophers.
  • In overtime against Northwestern, Julian connected from deep to break a 62-62 tie and the Gophers never gave the lead back.
  • With less than three minutes on the clock and down by 5, Welch’s 3-pointer made the score 55-53 Michigan in a regular season contest.  Less than a minute later, another long range basket cut the lead to 57-56.
  • At Illinois, his 3-point baskets late in the second half tied the game up at 54 and 57, respectively.
  • Down by 5 with 4:36 to play, Welch nailed a triple to reduce Indiana State’s lead to 2 points.  A minute later, his layup would give Minnesota a 63-62 lead and his 4/4 free throw shooting in the last 1:23 of the game sealed the victory for the Gophers.

Welch started and ended the season playing through injury, but even after his first three games as a Gopher in which he shot just 2/9 from the field, had 4 assists and 8 turnovers, he put together a solid 2011-12 campaign.  His 56.1 eFG% was so good that it will be difficult to duplicate (to compare, Andre Hollins had a 48.2 eFG% and in 2010-11 senior Blake Hoffarber shot 53.5%), but if he can cut down on turnovers and not take a huge step back shooting the ball, the 5th year senior will be a valuable part of the team once again.

The time is now for sophomore Andre Hollins, but there’s no reason why he and Julian Welch can’t play together.  No matter who carries the ball up the court, you’ve then got two ballhandlers that are threats from 3-point range.  While Julian adds in a nifty mid-range game, Andre has the ability to get all the way to the bucket.  Combine those two with Austin Hollins and the defense has to worry about three deep ball threats who can attack at multiple levels.  Not bad.  Add in an all-conference talent down low in Trevor Mbakwe along with an athletic Rodney Williams cutting toward the hoop and opponents are going to have their hands full.

Match ups and a number of other variables will dictate who plays with who, but don’t forget about Julian Welch as a potential difference maker for the 2012-13 Golden Gophers.  No matter where you see Welch fitting in with next year’s team, he deserves a lot of credit for a solid first year at Minnesota.

The table below is not meant to be an exhaustive list of everyone who played point guard in the Big Ten, but it does help to illustrate where the Gophers’ guards stacked up against their peers.

B1G Point Guards – Effective Field Goal Percentage in 2011-12

Player

Team

eFG%

Jordan Hulls

Indiana

63.0%

Julian Welch

Minnesota

56.1%

Aaron Craft

Ohio State

55.0%

Trey Burke

Michigan

50.2%

Dave Sobolewski

Northwestern

50.0%

Andre Hollins

Minnesota

48.2%

Jordan Taylor

Wisconsin

48.1%

Lewis Jackson

Purdue

47.1%

Keith Appling

Michigan State

46.6%

Tim Frazier

Penn State

44.6%

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