Projecting NBPA Top 100 Camp Performance to College
We believe the best scouting is done with a thoughtful mixture of in-person viewings and statistical analysis.
Our proprietary statistical analysis continues to evolve, but over the years our testing has proven it to be of great value with regard to projecting future performance of prep players.
However, analysis of the numbers is complementary to live viewing. Ideally, we would see players multiple times in various settings (spring/summer travel, high school, camps, international competition, etc.).
Undoubtedly, when we are able to view players and perform rigorous statistical analysis, we are able to project at a high level.
The NBPA Top 100 Camp is a bit unique for a few reasons, including a usage and offensive efficiency mix that tends to be noticeably strong for the older kids.
There are many metrics of interest, but for today we are sharing a simple look at certain high-performing kids at the 2014 camp and how they did in their first year of college.
There were eight players (seven 2015’s and one 2016) who (a) played at least 30% of their team’s available minutes, (b) posted an ORtg of 105.0% or better, and (c) had a usage of at least 24.0%.
In order, by ORtg:
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 138.0 ORtg, 30.1% usage
Freshman year: 112.9 ORtg, 28.3% usage
Other: Top overall pick in the 2016 NBA draft
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 112.7 ORtg, 34.7% usage
Freshman year: 112.7 ORtg, 17.4% usage, 21.2% %Shots, 7.7% turnover rate
Other: Declared for the NBA draft, but later withdrew. At camp, he shot a solid 53.9% eFG%, but we worried about his shot selection in college. He did have a string of four games from late November to mid-December in which he shot just 22.5% eFG% on 40 attempts, but by conference time, Blakeney seemed to have found his place. The freshman’s conference numbers included an ORtg of 119.7 and 55.9% eFG% (55.4% 2FG, 37.7% 3FG). Teammates with Simmons at LSU.
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 123.6 ORtg, 27.6% usage
2016 Kentucky freshman
#8 in RSCI
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 122.8 ORtg, 26.3% usage
Freshman year: 98.3 ORtg, 21.4% usage
Other: Minimal playing time (~200 minutes); 33rd overall pick in the NBA draft
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 121.5 ORtg, 25.3% usage
Freshman year: 104.4 ORtg, 22.9% usage
Other: Top 100 Camp eFG% was 51.6%, the second-lowest of the group of eight; his OR% was noteworthy, however, at 13.6%. As a freshman, the 6’6″ Clarke earned an OR% of 10.7% and DR% of 21.0% in relatively low minutes played (478). Certainly a name that we’d expect to be elevated in college basketball discussions going forward.
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 118.7 ORtg, 29.3% usage
Freshman year: 113.1 ORtg, 15.8% usage
Other: Minimal playing time (~100 minutes); transferring from Vandy to Tulane
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 116.7 ORtg, 30.3% usage
Freshman year: 102.8 ORtg, 27.4% usage
Other: Declared for the NBA draft, but later withdrew. More than a quarter of his FGA’s were 3FGA’s and he converted just 28.1% of them. Would expect a nice progression as a sophomore and, like Clarke, will garner more and more attention nationally.
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 109.6 ORtg, 29.4% usage
Freshman year: 115.0 ORtg, 23.1% usage
Other: 19th overall pick in the NBA draft. Teammates at FSU with Bacon.
Others that don’t fit the criteria above… but are interesting for one reason or another…
Brandon Ingram – 96.1 ORtg, 15.9% usage at camp. The low ORtg was driven by turnovers (22.5% turnover rate), but having watched him extensively over the years, it was clear the 96.1 ORtg was not a great indicator of future performance.
Still, Ingram’s 112.1 ORtg for Duke was easily the lowest of all their regulars, despite a perhaps surprising 41.0% 3FG% over 195 3FGA’s.
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 126.6 ORtg, 17.5% usage, 24.4% %Shots, 4.8% OR%, 5.8% DR%, relative to camp, a high 4.0 FC/40, 8.8% free throw rate
Freshman year: 105.5 ORtg, 20.9% usage, 22.7% %Shots, 7.3 OR%, 14.6 DR%, 7.6 FC/40
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 115.2 ORtg, 22.7% possessions; 30.0% Assist rate; 11.6% turnover rate
Other: Strong numbers as a 2016; if the return from injury is good, look out
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 94.6 ORtg, 20.1% usage; 17.0% OR%
Freshman year: 12.9% OR% for Nebraska, including 11.6% OR% in Big Ten play
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 131.0 ORtg, 19.4% usage
Other: Indiana freshman for 2016-17
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 121.8 ORtg, 22.9% usage
Freshman year: 109.4 ORtg, 26.6% usage
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 123.2 ORtg, 19.2% usage, 20.9% OR%, 20.4% DR%
Freshman year: 109.7 ORtg, 19.4% usage, 11.7 OR%, 23.1% DR%
2014 NBPA Top 100 Camp: 112.0 ORtg, 23.2% usage