We recently commented on the difficulty in projecting minutes for Marquette’s stacked 2018-19 roster. Today, we look at projecting usage play-by-player, which is (or at least feels like) a much easier task.
Before getting to our projections, we also looked at how many games each player posted a single-game usage greater than 25% thus far in their career (using KenPom.com data; minimum of 10 minutes playing time in a game).
Only three 2018-19 eligible Warriors have had more than five >25% usage games in their career, led by Markus Howard’s 34 over two seasons.
Continue reading Projecting Marquette’s 2018-19 Usage
Markus Howard Off to a Strong, But Different, Start
As a freshman, Markus Howard shot a nation-leading 54.7% from 3-point range. As we projected his sophomore campaign, expecting him to best or even match that percentage was not reasonable. We expect his 3-point shooting percentage to decline in 2017-18.
How, then, could he improve this year? The answer includes turnover rate and 2-point field goal percentage. So far, so good. We should note that in Marquette’s first four games they’ve played our preseason pick for second place in the Big Ten (Purdue), the nation’s #6 ranked team (Wichita State) and a pesky VCU squad. It’s not as if he’s faced a long string of weak opponents.
Continue reading Markus Howard Off to a Strong, But Different, Start
First, a tip of the hat to Open Look Analytics (Openlookanalytics.com and @OLAnalytics on Twitter) for their great data which was used for this article. College programs should be subscribing to their services.
From 2014 through 2017, how many adidas Uprising players have posted an Offensive Rating (“ORtg”) of more than 125, a usage rate of more than 25% and played at least 200 minutes? The answer is two.
In 2016, 2018 Romeo Langford had an ORtg of 126.4 and a usage of 27.0%. Langford is currently ranked as the sixth best prospect in the 2018 class by Rivals, 24/7, ESPN and Scout.
The other player is 2018 Marquette commit Joey Hauser. Joey’s ORtg this year was 127.7 and his usage was 29.1%.
It’s important to understand how a player got to their ORtg and usage. In Hauser’s case, his eFG% of 57.7% isn’t earth shattering, but includes good indicators for the future.
His 3FG% of 46.3% was excellent, but only 32% of his field goal attempts were from deep. Scoring a variety of different ways, his 2FG% was a solid 52.2%.
Continue reading Joey Hauser: Advanced Stats at adidas Uprising
Howard Pulley Advanced Stats through 2017 EYBL Session #2
Advanced stats for individuals and the team’s four factors are included below. They reflect Howard Pulley’s eight games (7-1 record) in EYBL through today, April 30, 2017. Key individual highlights include:
- Tre Jones: 138.5 ORtg; 26.1% usage; 60.1% eFG%; 14.0% DR%; 44.2% assist rate; 12.7% TO rate
- Gabe Kalscheur: 128.9 ORtg, 22.2% usage; 28.2% %Shots; 63.5% eFG%; 44.8% 3FG%
- Daniel Oturu: 118.0 ORtg; 19.8% usage; 16.8% OR%; 24.2% DR%; 11.9% TO rate; 6.9 blk%
- Jarvis Thomas: 103.8 ORtg; 19.0% usage; 65.2% eFG%; 10.5% OR%; 17.5% DR%;
Continue reading Howard Pulley Advanced Stats through 2017 EYBL Session #2
Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
There is no denying that Marquette’s defense has been poor this season. One of the uglier stats has been 3FG% allowed, which is now at 38.4%, ranking the team at #315 is the nation.
In Big East play, things have only gotten worse as MU’s opponents are converting 40.1% of their 3-point attempts.
Continue reading Marquette’s Catch & Shoot Defense: Unlucky?
eFG% better than opponent: 14-0
eFG% worse than opponent: 0-7
TO% better (lower) than opponent: 11-5
TO% worse (higher) than opponent: 3-2
OR% better than opponent: 7-3
OR% worse than opponent:7-4
FTR better than opponent: 7-0
FTR worse than opponent: 7-7
Continue reading Marquette Four Factors: Win-Loss Record
Marquette’s Dramatic 3FG% & 3FGA/FGA Improvement
Prior to the season tipping off we explained that in order for Marquette to be good, they needed to improve their eFG% differential and that they had the potential to improve their turnover rate differential. So far, so good.
We said, “A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are in business even without improvement in rebounding.”
As of today, Marquette has 6.7% eFG% advantage over their opponents (57.9% to 51.2%).
Their offensive eFG% is fifth-best in the nation and 5.9% higher than last year’s respectable 52.0%.
Continue reading Marquette’s Dramatic 3FG% & 3FGA/FGA Improvement
Marquette’s Defensive Rebounding Remains Strong Despite Size
Entering the 2016-17 season, many were concerned with Marquette’s defensive rebounding and with good reason. A year ago, MU ranked just #225 in defensive rebounding percentage after allowing opponents to rebound 30.7% of their misses. The Warriors also lost their top defensive rebounder Henry Ellenson (24.1% DR%) to the NBA.
Marquette allowed nonconference opponents an OR% of greater than 30.0% eight times in 13 games last season. In 12 nonconference games this year, Marquette has done so only once (IUPUI – 33.3%). MU’s is allowing an opponent OR% of 25.5% – good for #43 in the nation. The two top OR% teams MU has faced were uw-madison (avg 38.9%; against MU had just 29.6%) and Georgia (33.2% avg; 22.9%).
Continue reading Marquette’s Defensive Rebounding Remains Strong Despite Size