February 23, 2013
Big Ten Value Add Insights (through games of 2/21/2013)
The table below lists the top 20 Big Ten players according to Value Add Basketball, through games of February 21, 2013. It’s no surprise that Trey Burke, Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller are the top three, but there are some interesting inclusions and exclusions further down the list.Prior to the season beginning we talked about Minnesota’s “fallacy of depth”:
“Having healthy bodies available is not the same thing as having great depth. We believe there are two optimal lineups (depending on the opponent) for Minnesota this year and also believe that Minnesota’s best players can add significantly more value than the rest of the roster.
However, Tubby Smith has used a relatively large bench in the past and frequently has subbed in three to five players at the same time within the first 10 minutes of games. The difference between winning and losing a game in the Big Ten and against competitive nonconference opponents is not large and lineup choices can greatly influence outcomes.”
Minnesota and Indiana are the only teams with 4 players in the top 20 of Value Add. While the Hoosiers are the top team in the nation, the Gophers are sitting alone at 8th place in the conference.
Minnesota has plenty of talent and, on balance, they have gotten very good production out of that talent. However, the bizarre utilization of their roster has cost them games.
|34||Thomas, Deshaun||Ohio St.||7.08||0.21||0||6.87|
|86||Payne, Adreian||Michigan St.||3.7||-2.09||0||5.8|
|87||Appling, Keith||Michigan St.||3.39||-0.89||1.5||5.78|
|101||Craft, Aaron||Ohio St.||2.61||-1.44||1.5||5.55|
Only one freshman – Michigan’s Glenn Robinson – is in the Value Add top 20. Other top freshmen (although outside of the top 20) include Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas, Sam Dekker, Mitch McGary and AJ Hammons.
Top 10 Offensive Value Add Players:
|Thomas, Deshaun||Ohio St.||7.08|
Top 10 Defensive Value Add Players:
|Dawson, Branden||Michigan St.||-2.42|
|Payne, Adreian||Michigan St.||-2.09|