Tag Archives: efg%

Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections

Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections

Before last season began, we shared thoughts on Marquette’s projected four factor differentials for the 2016-17 season, comparing them to 2015-16. The key in reaching the NCAA tournament for the Warriors was going to be effective field goal percentage differential.

We said, “A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are in business even without improvement in rebounding.”

As of Selection Sunday, Marquette’s actual eFG% differential was 5.7% (57.6% on offense, 51.9% on defense) and they were selected to the tourney’s field.

MU simply had to shoot the ball better than their opponents to have a chance at being a tourney team. Our target mark of 5.8% proved to be a reasonable estimate of the differential needed to make the tournament. Continue reading Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections

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Marquette Four Factors: Win-Loss Record

Picture source: Marquette Men’s Basketball Facebook Page

Marquette Four Factors: Win-Loss Record
(through January 28, 2017)

eFG% better than opponent: 14-0
eFG% worse than opponent: 0-7
TO% better (lower) than opponent: 11-5
TO% worse (higher) than opponent: 3-2
OR% better than opponent: 7-3
OR% worse than opponent:7-4
FTR better than opponent: 7-0
FTR worse than opponent: 7-7
Continue reading Marquette Four Factors: Win-Loss Record

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Four Factors Differentials in 2015-16; Marquette in 2016-17

Four Factors Differentials in 2015-16; Marquette in 2016-17

This article serves two purposes: (1) it’s a reminder of what matters the most – effective field goal percentage; and, (2) it offers commentary on ways Marquette might improve compared to last season.

Let’s take a somewhat different-than-normal look at what matters to a team’s success.  Below you’ll find a graph for each of the four factors that illustrate, by team, the differential in each of the factors vs. their overall KenPom team ranking (adjusted efficiency margin) for the 2015-16 season.

Free Throw Rate
Below shows each team’s free throw rate (“FTR”) differential (offensive FTR minus defensive FTR) on the y-axis and their KenPom ranking on the x-axis. You’ll see Marquette indicated by a red diamond (a 12.5 FTR differential and a 97 team ranking).
Continue reading Four Factors Differentials in 2015-16; Marquette in 2016-17

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