We recently commented on the difficulty in projecting minutes for Marquette’s stacked 2018-19 roster. Today, we look at projecting usage play-by-player, which is (or at least feels like) a much easier task.
Before getting to our projections, we also looked at how many games each player posted a single-game usage greater than 25% thus far in their career (using KenPom.com data; minimum of 10 minutes playing time in a game).
Only three 2018-19 eligible Warriors have had more than five >25% usage games in their career, led by Markus Howard’s 34 over two seasons.
Continue reading Projecting Marquette’s 2018-19 Usage
Sam Hauser Sits at #2 Nationally in 3FG%
Markus Howard of Marquette was awarded an NCAA statistical plaque for having the nation’s best three-point field goal shooting percentage in 2016-17. His teammate Sam Hauser is currently second in the nation for the 2017-18 award, but two non-NCAA teams may keep him away from the hardware.
Some rules related to the honor are fairly simple: you must make at least 2.5 three-point field goals per game and play in at least 75% of your team’s games. That’s why you don’t see Michigan State’s Cassius Winston on the leaderboard despite his lofty 56.5% shooting from deep this season. He’s only 70/124 in his team’s 31 games (31 x 2.5 = 77.5).
Continue reading Sam Hauser Sits at #2 Nationally in 3FG%
Greg Elliott Posting Impressive Defensive Stats Early for Marquette
With the departure of Haanif Cheatham earlier this week, Marquette freshman Greg Elliott may need to play a bigger role than he otherwise would have. This may be a good thing.
Elliott (41.4% minutes played) has a block rate of 8.4% and a steal rate of 4.3%, both ranked in the top 70 players nationally per KenPom.com.
Continue reading Greg Elliott Posting Impressive Defensive Stats Early for Marquette
Markus Howard Off to a Strong, But Different, Start
As a freshman, Markus Howard shot a nation-leading 54.7% from 3-point range. As we projected his sophomore campaign, expecting him to best or even match that percentage was not reasonable. We expect his 3-point shooting percentage to decline in 2017-18.
How, then, could he improve this year? The answer includes turnover rate and 2-point field goal percentage. So far, so good. We should note that in Marquette’s first four games they’ve played our preseason pick for second place in the Big Ten (Purdue), the nation’s #6 ranked team (Wichita State) and a pesky VCU squad. It’s not as if he’s faced a long string of weak opponents.
Continue reading Markus Howard Off to a Strong, But Different, Start
Marquette Again Improves Schedule in 2017-18
As they did a year ago, Marquette has improved their scheduling and projected RPI “strength of schedule”.
Last year MU’s SOS, worth 50% of RPI, was .5621. Late Night Hoops projects an SOS of .5882 in 2017-18. That equals an RPI improvement in the SOS component of .0131.
Had MU’s RPI been .0131 better in 2016-17, their Selection Sunday RPI ranking of 61 would have moved up to 50.
Marquette’s scheduling still has room for improvement, but it’s encouraging that it has improved yet again in 2017-18.
The Warriors begin their season on Friday vs. Mount St. Mary’s.
First, a tip of the hat to Open Look Analytics (Openlookanalytics.com and @OLAnalytics on Twitter) for their great data which was used for this article. College programs should be subscribing to their services.
From 2014 through 2017, how many adidas Uprising players have posted an Offensive Rating (“ORtg”) of more than 125, a usage rate of more than 25% and played at least 200 minutes? The answer is two.
In 2016, 2018 Romeo Langford had an ORtg of 126.4 and a usage of 27.0%. Langford is currently ranked as the sixth best prospect in the 2018 class by Rivals, 24/7, ESPN and Scout.
The other player is 2018 Marquette commit Joey Hauser. Joey’s ORtg this year was 127.7 and his usage was 29.1%.
It’s important to understand how a player got to their ORtg and usage. In Hauser’s case, his eFG% of 57.7% isn’t earth shattering, but includes good indicators for the future.
His 3FG% of 46.3% was excellent, but only 32% of his field goal attempts were from deep. Scoring a variety of different ways, his 2FG% was a solid 52.2%.
Continue reading Joey Hauser: Advanced Stats at adidas Uprising
Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections
Before last season began, we shared thoughts on Marquette’s projected four factor differentials for the 2016-17 season, comparing them to 2015-16. The key in reaching the NCAA tournament for the Warriors was going to be effective field goal percentage differential.
We said, “A net improvement of 2.5% in eFG% differential means a +5.8% and places Marquette in or around the top 35 of eFG% differential, by far the most important of the four factors. Do that, and they are in business even without improvement in rebounding.”
As of Selection Sunday, Marquette’s actual eFG% differential was 5.7% (57.6% on offense, 51.9% on defense) and they were selected to the tourney’s field.
MU simply had to shoot the ball better than their opponents to have a chance at being a tourney team. Our target mark of 5.8% proved to be a reasonable estimate of the differential needed to make the tournament. Continue reading Revisiting Marquette’s 2016-17 Preseason Projections
Improved Scheduling Helped Marquette Reach 2016-17 Tourney
On Selection Sunday, Marquette had an RPI of 61. If the largest component of RPI – opponents’ win-loss performance against all D-I teams except MU – would have been the same as 2015-16, Marquette would have had an RPI that was .0224 lower, slotting them at 82 in the RPI and likely out of the NCAA tournament.
The Warriors’ strength of schedule ranked them 219 of 351 teams as of Selection Sunday this season. This was a sizable improvement from 326 in 2015-16.
Continue reading Improved Scheduling Helped Marquette Reach 2016-17 Tourney