Tag Archives: statistics

Warriors Allowed to Shine at Marquette

Warriors Allowed to Shine at Marquette
December 23, 2015


Marquette_Golden_EaglesFile this one under “for what’s it worth,” but we find it interesting. It’s difficult to reach many conclusions based on this data, but at a minimum we feel safe suggesting that if you’re a player at Marquette under Wojo and you’re scoring the ball well on any given night, you will have the opportunity to put up big numbers.

In 2014-15, Marquette had six different players score 20 or more points in a game. Only three teams in all of D-I college basketball had more players reach the 20-point mark (Davidson , Louisiana-Lafayette and North Florida – each had seven).

Through December 21, the 2015-16 season had seen five different Warriors hit the 20-point mark. Only three teams had more players reach 20 points in a game (Colorado, Detroit Mercy and Northern Colorado – each with six). Marquette redshirt sophomore guard Duane Wilson is likely to join the group as he did in 2014-15, but thus far his high is 18 points. Wilson has scored double figures in nine of 11 games this season; he’s scored fewer than nine points in only one contest.

This year’s Marquette team features high-usage Henry Ellenson (27% usage, 30% %Shots), but when other guys are stepping up they have been allowed to keep firing. The other four of MU’s 20+ point scorers this year each have a sub-20% usage.

MU 20+ point scorers in 2014-15:

Juan Anderson
Matt Carlino
Luke Fischer
JaJuan Johnson
Steve Taylor
Duane Wilson

MU 20+ point scorers in 2015-16 (through game #11):
Haanif Cheatham
Sandy Cohen
Henry Ellenson
Luke Fischer
JaJuan Johnson

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Data sources included: http://www.basketball-reference.com

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Hindsight Review: 2012-13 Big Ten Predictions

April 24, 2013
Hindsight Review: 2012-13 Big Ten Preseason Predictions

Note: All teams except for Minnesota are discussed below. A separate article on the Gophers is available at this link.

We looked back at our 2012-13 Big Ten preseason team previews with the objective of helping us to continue to improve. Some of these notes are ‘internal jottings’ more than anything else, but some readers may find them interesting or entertaining (for example, our projection of Oto Osenieks dramatically improving his 3FG% in 2012-13).

At the beginning of the year and again on the first day of Big Ten conference play we said that there were six teams that looked like NCAA tournament teams (Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St., Minnesota, Ohio St. & Wisconsin) and two that looked like potential tourney teams (Illinois and Iowa). We didn’t believe the bottom four had a chance.
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Marquette’s Recent Efficiency

March 16, 2013
Marquette’s Recent Efficiency

After reading through Cracked Sidewalk’s Deconstructing the Season So Far article which commented on Marquette’s recent trends in actual offensive and defensive efficiencies, we decided to take a quick look at Marquette’s adjusted efficiencies (adjusted based on opponents’ Adj OE & DE).

The resulting visual of adjusted efficiencies doesn’t appear quite as ugly as the unadjusted chart:

Five-game moving averages – Actual efficiencies  [source: CrackedSidewalks.com]
O&D eff 5G MA

Five-game moving averages – Adjusted Efficiencies
Adj Eff 5G MA

CrackedSidewalks (“CS”) makes some points about individual factors and their related concerns. The commentary is good and valid, but we’ll throw out some additional food for thought.

♦ The last 5 games included 3 against tough competition (Syracuse; Notre Dame twice) and the other two were on the road.

Marquette’s eFG% hasn’t been consistently great (although the 64.9% eFG vs. Notre Dame in Milwaukee was a Big East season best), but it’s been solid. Their worst performance in the past 11 games was at St. John’s. While not a good team overall, the kids from Queens are very good defensively and have the nation’s top shot blocker (block %) in Chris Obekpa. MU made 22/45 2FG for 48.9% despite being blocked 11 times, including 7 alone courtesy of Obekpa.

♦ Turnovers are ugly, there’s no denying that.

♦ CS notes that the OR% differential has narrowed recently and that, “since the Villanova game, defensive rebounding has been worse and worse and now no longer masks the turnover deficiencies.”

While that’s how the 5-game trend calculates out, the reality is that Marquette’s DR% has improved sequentially in its past 4 games (Opponent’s OR% starting 5 games ago to most recent: 45.5%, 43.6%, 40.0%, 36.2%, 31.6%). It’s worth noting that the 45.5% belongs to Syracuse, one of the best OR% teams in the nation.

♦ Finally, a subject we don’t like to give much time to because it’s so far down on the list of factors important to winning a basketball game: Free throws. CS comments that they are “leaving out FTR, because it’s irrelevant (repeat after me: FTR is irrelevant).” Normally, we’d love this comment and often make similar statements.

However, getting to the line may be more important for Marquette than it is for their peers.
Marquette’s 2012-13 record when their free throw rate is better/same/worse than the other team:

MU’s FTR is… Win – Loss
Better 20-2
Same 0-1
Worse 3-5
  TOTAL 23-8

In terms of correlation of FTR to OE, for all Big East teams combined excluding MU the average is +.005 over the last two seasons. The Warriors sit above +.040.

Free throws aren’t a big deal at the end of the day. However, for a team like Marquette that isn’t a dominant squad, the FTR differential can become more of a factor in games than it might for others.

This team earned its 14-4 conference record, but it’s still a bit surprising/impressive that they were able to do it. Despite an ugly turnover rate in conference, MU’s offense still had the Big East’s top efficiency. Were eFG% and OR% more important than FTR? Absolutely. But to call FTR irrelevant to this Marquette team is something we can’t quite do.

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Some cut & pasted data is included below, should anyone want it. Adj OE, Adj DE for each Big East game is shown, as is the 5 game differential and the specific, one game differential.

Adj OE Adj DE 5G avg Diff Game Diff
Connecticut 110.7405 94.68134 16.05912456 23.81317
Georgetown 108.9579 93.33936 15.61854156 25.20559
Pittsburgh 117.37 93.76949 23.60054642 40.38621
Seton Hall 115.708 91.44983 24.25813039 16.21000
Cincinnati 115.1463 91.13241 24.01388347 14.45446
Providence 118.1078 92.80057 25.30719308 30.27972
South Florida 118.3791 93.37838 25.00072103 23.67323
Louisville 113.3161 95.90145 17.41467184 2.455961
South Florida 115.6749 93.35303 22.32189016 40.74609
DePaul 119.8825 97.15278 22.72967526 16.49338
Georgetown 113.3329 94.44453 18.88835112 11.07310
Pittsburgh 120.6765 96.85236 23.82409691 48.35196
Seton Hall 122.4754 91.19187 31.28351566 39.75305
Villanova 118.1994 93.38285 24.81658038 8.411410
Syracuse 118.8345 90.47177 28.36268801 34.22392
Notre Dame 121.2129 89.09054 32.12233605 29.87134
Rutgers 113.4167 87.64597 25.77076047 16.59408
St. John’s 111.6409 91.94839 19.69255654 9.362035
Notre Dame 113.2028 93.77409 19.42866233 7.091939

 

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Minnesota’s Efficiency in the Tubby Smith Years

March 10, 2013
Minnesota’s Efficiency in the Tubby Smith Years

Tubby Smith blasted his team’s defense after they gave up 1.29 points per possession to offensively-challenged Purdue in yesterday’s 89-73 loss. Purdue’s best offensive performance this season prior to going off on the Gophers was 1.19 points per possession.

After the game Smith commented that this might be his worst defensive team since arriving in the Twin Cities. Today we take a look at both Minnesota’s defensive and offensive efficiency during Tubby’s tenure.

Back in January we discussed the difference between raw and adjusted efficiency. A point of that article was that Minnesota’s adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.com benefited from some assumptions that didn’t align well reality. That is, Minnesota’s defense was held in a higher regard than it should have been.

In looking at the history of the Gophers’ raw defense during the Smith years you’ll see the numbers haven’t been very good since the days of Damian Johnson (whose senior year was 2009-10).

However, once 2012-13 is adjusted, this season’s defense jumps from a #104 ranking all the way up to #45. The rankings follow in the chart below (i.e., Minnesota’s adjusted offensive efficiency in 2012-13 ranks as the 17th best in the nation):

 Season AdjO AdjD RawO RawD
2012-13 17 45 37 104
2011-12 64 48 107 142
2010-11 58 62 86 197
2009-10 29 40 48 65
2008-09 93 21 137 61
2007-08 77 56 127 55

This might be a scary thought for some, but relative to offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency this season has easily been one of Tubby’s top two (only 2009-10 comes close) and arguably his best. The graph below plots the offensive & defensive rankings for each year (raw and adjusted).

For each season, the gold squares represent raw rankings and the maroon rotated squares represent the adjusted rankings per KenPom. (Offense on the x-axis, defense on the y-axis; the closer to the lower left of the graph, the better.)
Efficiency Chart
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Mbakwe’s 8.8 Rebounds Don’t Tell The Full Story

March 4, 2013

New article is now up at GopherHole.com. It takes a look at Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe’s impressive work on both the defensive and offensive glass this season.

Below is just one of the tables included in that article. It shows total rebound percentage leaders among the six “BCS” conferences over the past four seasons and each player’s current status (NBA lottery, first rounder, second rounder, undrafted… or current college player).

Averaging both 24% DR% and 16% OR% as Mbakwe is doing this season is quite rare.

TRB%

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Big Ten Value Add Insights – 2/23/13

February 23, 2013
Big Ten Value Add Insights (through games of 2/21/2013)

See www.valueaddbasketball.com and Breitbart Sports for further information on Value Add Basketball.

The table below lists the top 20 Big Ten players according to Value Add Basketball, through games of February 21, 2013. It’s no surprise that Trey Burke, Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller are the top three, but there are some interesting inclusions and exclusions further down the list.Prior to the season beginning we talked about Minnesota’s “fallacy of depth”:

Having healthy bodies available is not the same thing as having great depth. We believe there are two optimal lineups (depending on the opponent) for Minnesota this year and also believe that Minnesota’s best players can add significantly more value than the rest of the roster.

 

However, Tubby Smith has used a relatively large bench in the past and frequently has subbed in three to five players at the same time within the first 10 minutes of games. The difference between winning and losing a game in the Big Ten and against competitive nonconference opponents is not large and lineup choices can greatly influence outcomes.

Minnesota and Indiana are the only teams with 4 players in the top 20 of Value Add. While the Hoosiers are the top team in the nation, the Gophers are sitting alone at 8th place in the conference.

Minnesota has plenty of talent and, on balance, they have gotten very good production out of that talent. However, the bizarre utilization of their roster has cost them games.

D1 Rank Player Team OFF DEF PG/PER TOTAL
1 Burke, Trey Michigan 9.78 -0.42 1.5 11.71
3 Oladipo, Victor Indiana 6.21 -3.31 0.5 10.03
6 Zeller, Cody Indiana 6.85 -2.53 0 9.38
34 Thomas, Deshaun Ohio St. 7.08 0.21 0 6.87
37 Hollins, Austin Minnesota 4.83 -1.48 0.5 6.81
38 Hulls, Jordan Indiana 5.14 -0.16 1.5 6.79
43 Brust, Ben Wisconsin 4.22 -1.51 1 6.72
49 Berggren, Jared Wisconsin 4.42 -2.19 0 6.61
70 Watford, Christian Indiana 4.68 -1.38 0 6.06
80 Richardson, DJ Illinois 3.89 -1.52 0.5 5.91
86 Payne, Adreian Michigan St. 3.7 -2.09 0 5.8
87 Appling, Keith Michigan St. 3.39 -0.89 1.5 5.78
93 White, Aaron Iowa 4.42 -1.26 0 5.68
97 Hollins, Andre Minnesota 4.76 -0.85 0 5.61
100 Mbakwe, Trevor Minnesota 3.19 -2.39 0 5.57
101 Craft, Aaron Ohio St. 2.61 -1.44 1.5 5.55
102 Robinson, Glenn Michigan 5.46 -0.06 0 5.52
123 Paul, Brandon Illinois 3.61 -1.6 0 5.21
153 Swopshire, Jared Northwestern 3.01 -1.81 0 4.82
165 Williams, Rodney Minnesota 3.63 -1.05 0 4.68

Other notes:
Only one freshman – Michigan’s Glenn Robinson – is in the Value Add top 20. Other top freshmen (although outside of the top 20) include Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas, Sam Dekker, Mitch McGary and AJ Hammons.

Top 10 Offensive Value Add Players:

Player Team OFF
Burke, Trey Michigan 9.78
Thomas, Deshaun Ohio St. 7.08
Zeller, Cody Indiana 6.85
Oladipo, Victor Indiana 6.21
Robinson, Glenn Michigan 5.46
Hulls, Jordan Indiana 5.14
Stauskas, Nik Michigan 5
Hollins, Austin Minnesota 4.83
Hollins, Andre Minnesota 4.76
Watford, Christian Indiana 4.68

Top 10 Defensive Value Add Players:

Oladipo, Victor Indiana -3.31
Evans, Ryan Wisconsin -2.7
Zeller, Cody Indiana -2.53
Dawson, Branden Michigan St. -2.42
Mbakwe, Trevor Minnesota -2.39
Berggren, Jared Wisconsin -2.19
Payne, Adreian Michigan St. -2.09
Swopshire, Jared Northwestern -1.81
McGary, Mitch Michigan -1.78
Paul, Brandon Illinois -1.6

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More Than a Number: Minnesota’s Rebounding Edge

February 16, 2013
More Than a Number: Minnesota’s Rebounding Edge

We know the story: The Gophers are great at offensive rebounding, not terrific at defensive rebounding.

If we compare Minnesota to their opponents in Big Ten play, the net of their OR% minus their opponents’ OR% is very good. The table below shows the net OR% for each Big Ten team in order from best to worst (includes all Big Ten games through 2/15/2013):

Team OR% Opp OR% Diff
Minnesota 41.7 32.1 9.6
Indiana 38.3 32.3 6
Michigan St. 31.5 27.7 3.8
Wisconsin 31.1 27.3 3.8
Michigan 31.9 29.1 2.8
Iowa 33 31.3 1.7
Ohio St. 29.9 28.4 1.5
Purdue 35.4 34.3 1.1
Illinois 34 35.1 -1.1
Penn St. 29.1 30.4 -1.3
Nebraska 24.9 34.5 -9.6
Northwestern 24.8 42.1 -17.3

Minnesota is easily the best. Northwestern is by far the worst and Nebraska has struggled as well. The Gophers have abused both the Wildcats (twice) and Huskers on the boards and that accounts for much of Minnesota’s net rebounding dominance in Big Ten games. If we back out those three games for the Gophers, their rank falls considerably:

Team OR% Opp OR% Diff
Indiana 38.3 32.3 6
Michigan St. 31.5 27.7 3.8
Wisconsin 31.1 27.3 3.8
Michigan 31.9 29.1 2.8
Minnesota 37.1 34.6 2.5
Iowa 33 31.3 1.7
Ohio St. 29.9 28.4 1.5
Purdue 35.4 34.3 1.1
Illinois 34 35.1 -1.1
Penn St. 29.1 30.4 -1.3
Nebraska 24.9 34.5 -9.6
Northwestern 24.8 42.1 -17.3

The facts don’t change – Minnesota is great at earning second chances. However, against most competition they are not gaining a big advantage on the boards and in fact have been outrebounded (OR%) in five of their 12 Big Ten games this season.

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Minnesota Golden Gophers Draft Shorts – Maroon
Minnesota Golden Gophers Draft Shorts - Maroon

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Doing the Splits: Andre Hollins

January 24, 2013

In early December we wrote Andre Hollins: A Tale of Two Games? which looked at Dre’s stats for all games excluding Memphis and South Dakota State games. Today, we’ll do the same.

As discussed in the earlier article, Joe Jackson of Memphis played just seven minutes against the Gophers and was on the floor at the same time as Andre for less than five (4:38). Also, SDSU star Nate Wolters did not play at all due to injury. In his place the Jackrabbits started a true freshman who turned the ball over seven times.

Dre has had several high-scoring games other than the two that are excluded below. However, the splits of (1) the Memphis & SDSU games compared to (2) all other games are interesting.

  PPG eFG% 2FG% 3FG% FT%
MEM & SDSU 31.5 102.0% 69.2% 91.7% 92.3%
All Other 11.8 47.2% 43.2% 34.2% 74.2%
TOTAL 13.8 54.6% 46.8% 41.8% 77.2%

Now, let’s look at this season’s “All Other” performance compared to Dre’s freshman year:

  Pts/40 eFG% 2FG% 3FG% FT%
Soph, All Other 16.9 47.2% 43.2% 34.2% 74.2%
Freshman 16.5 48.2% 40.5% 37.9% 90.4%

Even after 19 games, it’s apparent what a big factor the Memphis and South Dakota State games have on Dre’s 2012-13 statistics.

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