Big Ten Value Add Insights – 2/23/13

February 23, 2013
Big Ten Value Add Insights (through games of 2/21/2013)

See www.valueaddbasketball.com and Breitbart Sports for further information on Value Add Basketball.

The table below lists the top 20 Big Ten players according to Value Add Basketball, through games of February 21, 2013. It’s no surprise that Trey Burke, Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller are the top three, but there are some interesting inclusions and exclusions further down the list.Prior to the season beginning we talked about Minnesota’s “fallacy of depth”:

Having healthy bodies available is not the same thing as having great depth. We believe there are two optimal lineups (depending on the opponent) for Minnesota this year and also believe that Minnesota’s best players can add significantly more value than the rest of the roster.

 

However, Tubby Smith has used a relatively large bench in the past and frequently has subbed in three to five players at the same time within the first 10 minutes of games. The difference between winning and losing a game in the Big Ten and against competitive nonconference opponents is not large and lineup choices can greatly influence outcomes.

Minnesota and Indiana are the only teams with 4 players in the top 20 of Value Add. While the Hoosiers are the top team in the nation, the Gophers are sitting alone at 8th place in the conference.

Minnesota has plenty of talent and, on balance, they have gotten very good production out of that talent. However, the bizarre utilization of their roster has cost them games.

D1 Rank Player Team OFF DEF PG/PER TOTAL
1 Burke, Trey Michigan 9.78 -0.42 1.5 11.71
3 Oladipo, Victor Indiana 6.21 -3.31 0.5 10.03
6 Zeller, Cody Indiana 6.85 -2.53 0 9.38
34 Thomas, Deshaun Ohio St. 7.08 0.21 0 6.87
37 Hollins, Austin Minnesota 4.83 -1.48 0.5 6.81
38 Hulls, Jordan Indiana 5.14 -0.16 1.5 6.79
43 Brust, Ben Wisconsin 4.22 -1.51 1 6.72
49 Berggren, Jared Wisconsin 4.42 -2.19 0 6.61
70 Watford, Christian Indiana 4.68 -1.38 0 6.06
80 Richardson, DJ Illinois 3.89 -1.52 0.5 5.91
86 Payne, Adreian Michigan St. 3.7 -2.09 0 5.8
87 Appling, Keith Michigan St. 3.39 -0.89 1.5 5.78
93 White, Aaron Iowa 4.42 -1.26 0 5.68
97 Hollins, Andre Minnesota 4.76 -0.85 0 5.61
100 Mbakwe, Trevor Minnesota 3.19 -2.39 0 5.57
101 Craft, Aaron Ohio St. 2.61 -1.44 1.5 5.55
102 Robinson, Glenn Michigan 5.46 -0.06 0 5.52
123 Paul, Brandon Illinois 3.61 -1.6 0 5.21
153 Swopshire, Jared Northwestern 3.01 -1.81 0 4.82
165 Williams, Rodney Minnesota 3.63 -1.05 0 4.68

Other notes:
Only one freshman – Michigan’s Glenn Robinson – is in the Value Add top 20. Other top freshmen (although outside of the top 20) include Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas, Sam Dekker, Mitch McGary and AJ Hammons.

Top 10 Offensive Value Add Players:

Player Team OFF
Burke, Trey Michigan 9.78
Thomas, Deshaun Ohio St. 7.08
Zeller, Cody Indiana 6.85
Oladipo, Victor Indiana 6.21
Robinson, Glenn Michigan 5.46
Hulls, Jordan Indiana 5.14
Stauskas, Nik Michigan 5
Hollins, Austin Minnesota 4.83
Hollins, Andre Minnesota 4.76
Watford, Christian Indiana 4.68

Top 10 Defensive Value Add Players:

Oladipo, Victor Indiana -3.31
Evans, Ryan Wisconsin -2.7
Zeller, Cody Indiana -2.53
Dawson, Branden Michigan St. -2.42
Mbakwe, Trevor Minnesota -2.39
Berggren, Jared Wisconsin -2.19
Payne, Adreian Michigan St. -2.09
Swopshire, Jared Northwestern -1.81
McGary, Mitch Michigan -1.78
Paul, Brandon Illinois -1.6

adidas Michigan Wolverines #3 Bleed Out Replica Jersey – Maize
adidas Michigan Wolverines #3 Bleed Out Replica Jersey - Maize

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