Gophers

Gophers 2013-14 Recap Part III: Defensive eFG%

Gophers 2013-14 Recap Part III: Defensive eFG%

The Gophers had a defensive eFG% of 48.7% (vs. D-I opponents) in 2013-14, the program’s worst since Dan Monson’s last full season in Minneapolis.

Looking both at last year and what it means to the future, there are good and bad indicators. We’ll explore a few of them in this article.

“Minnesota’s 42.8% defensive 2FG% will rise significantly this season. Big, big concern and a key indicator for this team.” – LateNightHoops.com, preseason 2013-14

The bad news is that our projection quoted above was spot-on. Minnesota’s 2FG% shot up to 47.1% from 42.8%. The chart below illustrates the trend over the past six seasons.

 

However, there was a positive trend in 2FG%.

In Big Ten games, Minnesota’s defensive 2FG% improved from the nonconference to 46.2% – good for third best in the conference.

However, while the Gophers 2FG% defense improved, their 3FG% skyrocketed. Against conference foes, Minnesota allowed 37.2% 3FG%. No team in the Big Ten was worse.

The chart below shows year-to-date defensive field goal percentages for Minnesota as the 2013-14 season progressed. You’ll see the improvement in 2FG% (blue) being offset the rising 3FG% (red; shown as an eFG%). The eFG% (green) is the result of 2FG%, 3FG%, and the mix of field goal attempts by opponents.

Miscellaneous thoughts:

  • If you believe 3FG% has little to do with the defense, the comps for next year are favorable.
  • The mix of two offensive/defensive platoon-like positions trended toward the offensive players later in the year. This makes the 2FG% defense improvement more impressive. (Mo Walker and Joey King instead of Elliott Eliason and Oto Osenieks)
  • Due to changes in officiating last season, the college game changed. Average effective field goal percentage rose approximately one full percentage from 48.6% in 2012-13 to 49.6%. This doesn’t account for much of Minnesota’s increase, but it’s fair to point out.
  • Interestingly (see the first bullet point above), average 2FG% and 3FG%’s in D-I vs. D-I games last year rose 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively. Adjusting 3FG% to eFG%, the trey conversation rate increased about the same as it did for two-point attempts.
  • Minnesota opponents (getting into too much detail here, but…): On a team-average basis (all games played against D-I opponents – not just games against the Gophers and not weighted for shots attempted vs. the Gophers), 2013-14 opponents had a higher 2FG% and 3FG% of 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, as compared to 2012-13 opponents.
  • When D-I opponents shot less than 46.5% eFG%, Minnesota was 13-0. When better than 46.5%, the Gophers were 11-13.
  • When an opponent shot better than 50% eFG%, the Gophers were just 5-9.
  • Prior to the NIT, opponents shot an eFG% better than their season average against Minnesota 12 times. The Gophers lost 8 of those games. The 4 wins included 3 over-matched opponents (Omaha, New Orleans and Coastal Carolina) and Iowa. Minnesota won the Iowa game 95-89 thanks to their own eFG% being an incredible 72.5%, the highest in at least a decade.